Is the US economy booming? The most recent Atlanta Fed estimate for real US GDP quarterly growth in Q4 2025 is now +5.1%. This is up from the 2.7% forecast seen just last week and far above the 0.9% consensus expectation among economists. If this materializes, it would mark the strongest quarterly growth in 4 years, when the US economy grew 7.0% in Q4 2021. The surge is likely driven by a narrowing trade deficit. In October, imports fell -3.2% MoM to the lowest since January 2024, while exports rose +2.6% MoM to the highest on record, boosting GDP. However, the import drop came from volatile categories like pharmaceuticals and nonmonetary gold. When these stabilize, the GDP boost could reverse. GDP data remains highly volatile.