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Strategy's Path to the S&P 500 and the "Uberization" of Bitcoin
Strategy's recent earnings performance has positioned the world's largest Bitcoin treasury company just one committee meeting away from inclusion in the S&P 500—a development that could fundamentally cement Bitcoin's place in American financial life.
Strategy's $100+ billion market cap has long cleared S&P's threshold, making it just one of two companies above that mark not in the index (ad-tech company AppLovin shares this distinction). That's because the index creator requires more: U.S. domicile, major exchange listing, and profitability over the last quarter and year. The final requirement had been the sticking point. Until now. MSTR's monster Q2 earnings rendered the company profitable over the past 12 months, clearing the final hurdle for potential inclusion as soon as September.
The company's index journal has been complex. Strategy was previously included in the S&P 600 (the S&P 500's little brother) prior to 2021, but fell out due to profitability constraints—a casualty of outdated accounting principles that don't properly account for Bitcoin. More recently, MSTR gained inclusion in the tech heavy Nasdaq 100, but the S&P 500 had still been just out of reach.
But despite checking all the boxes, Strategy may not make the cut, as admission remains discretionary upon committee approval.
By many metrics, the decision should be easy. Strategy returned 179% this year compared to the S&P 500's 22%. And Strategy's $10 billion in Q2 net income would place it in the index's top ten, between Berkshire Hathaway and Exxon Mobile. It stands to reason that any company making the top 10 should make the top 500.
Still, Strategy's inclusion isn't guaranteed, as Tesla shareholders know too well. In 2020, S&P snubbed the electric carmaker despite impressive returns, admitting the much-smaller Etsy instead. While decisionmakers didn't provide a rationale, market analysts pointed to Tesla's volatility as a concern.
That could prove troublesome for Strategy, whose five-year beta of 3.86 would make it the S&P 500's most volatile company, with nearly double Tesla's volatility profile.
Still, Strategy and Bitcoin's price swings aren't what they used to be and will likely continue declining as institutional acceptance grows. Notably, even volatility bad boy Tesla was admitted the very next quarter.
Should Strategy make the cut, the implications will likely reach far beyond its stock price. It would likely trigger what CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham calls the "Uberization" of Bitcoin—integrating digital assets so deeply into American economic life that attempting to ban them becomes nearly impossible.
That's because MSTR's inclusion in the S&P 500 would instantly give tens of millions of Americans Bitcoin exposure through their pension funds, 401(k)s and brokerage accounts. Not because their investment managers will suddenly buy Bitcoin, but because tens of millions of Americans are already invested in index funds that track the S&P 500. When the index adjusts to add MSTR, their index-fund-based portfolios will automatically shift too.
The magnitude can hardly be understated. The S&P 500 holds roughly 3-6% of Magnificent Seven companies' publicly available float; if the same holds for Strategy, millions of Americans would cumulatively own a multi-billion dollar slice of the company's Bitcoin-baked pie virtually overnight, without ever thinking about digital wallets or visiting a crypto exchange.
That mass adoption makes Bitcoin too big to fail. As Pham noted, when digital assets become "so big, so accepted, so part of our lives, you can't really take them away." It's one thing for regulators to target a niche digital asset. It's quite another to threaten the retirement security of teachers, firefighters, and middle-class savers whose index funds happen to hold the S&P 500.
Whether that happens in September or not, one thing is clear: Bitcoin's leap from monetary experiment to blue-chip holding is already underway.

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